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CIA's Secret Interest in Peak Oilposted by ewing2001 on Saturday August 16, @07:39AM
  from the informationclearinghouse dept.  Peak Oil- the real reason for Sep11th attack? Smoking Gun: The CIA's Interest in Peak Oil InformationClearingHouse - 08/15/03
by Richard Heinberg
08/15/03: A recently declassified CIA document casts new light on some
of the most significant geopolitical events of the past quarter
century. This document, an Intelligence Memorandum titled "The
Impending Soviet Oil Crisis (ER 77-10147)," was issued in March
1977 by the Office of Economic Research and classified
"Secret" until its public release in January 2001 in
response to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request.
Until now the document has prompted little discussion.
The Memorandum predicts an impending peak in Soviet oil production
"not later than the early 1980s" (the actual peak occurred
in 1987 at 12.6 million barrels per day, following a preliminary peak
in 1983 of 12.5 Mb/d). "During the next decade," the unnamed
authors of the document conclude, "the USSR may well find itself
not only unable to supply oil to Eastern Europe and the West on the
present scale, but also having to compete for OPEC oil for its own
use." The Memorandum predicts that the oil peak will have
important economic impacts: "When oil production stops growing,
and perhaps even before, profound repercussions will be felt on the
domestic economy of the USSR and on its international economic
relations." The significance of the document requires some unpacking. First, we
must understand the historical context in which it appeared. Oil production in the US had peaked in 1970, just a few years
earlier. This was arguably the most important economic event of the
past half-century: until then America was the world's foremost oil
producer; for much of the twentieth century it was also the world's
foremost oil exporter. American oil won both World Wars for the Allies
and made the US the world's richest and most powerful nation.
Meanwhile, throughout most of this same period the USSR remained the
world's second foremost oil-producing nation. The American oil peak signaled the end of an era: from that point
on, the US would become increasingly dependent on imports - and this
dependence would entail serious costs, as became apparent with the
Arab OPEC oil embargo of 1973, which sent the US economy into a
tailspin. Clearly, CIA
analysts in 1977 understood the importance of the American oil peak
and believed that a peak of petroleum production in the USSR would
have similar or even graver consequences for that nation. This much is clear and undisputable. Less clear is what was done
with the information. Soon after assuming office in 1981, the Reagan
Administration abandoned the established policy of pursuing détente
with the Soviet Union and instead instituted a massive arms buildup;
it also fomented proxy wars in areas of Soviet influence, while
denying the Soviets desperately needed oil equipment and technology.
Then, in the mid-1980s, Washington persuaded Saudi Arabia to flood the
world market with cheap oil. Throughout the last decade of its
existence, the USSR pumped and sold its oil at the maximum possible
rate in order to earn foreign exchange income with which to keep up in
the arms race and prosecute its war in Afghanistan. Yet with markets
awash with cheap Saudi oil, the Soviets were earning less even as they
pumped more. Two years after their oil production peaked, the economy
of the USSR crumbled and its government collapsed. Did the Reagan administration base its Cold War strategy on the CIA
study, in the expectation that a Soviet Union economically weakened by
oil depletion would collapse if pushed hard on other fronts? That question is mostly of historical interest. But the Agency's
focus on the phenomenon of oil peaks has important implications for
the present. For the past decade, oil experts have been debating when
global oil production will peak. Pessimists say the global peak may
already have occurred in 2000; optimists say it won't come until 2025
or so. A growing consensus of petroleum geologists places this pivotal
event in the mid-range period of 2006 to 2015.
From a certain perspective, the amount of time in dispute is not of
great significance: whether we have a year or two or a decade or two
before the supply of oil can no longer meet demand is relatively
trivial from a historical, analytical point of view (though of
considerable significance for billions of individual humans needing to
make plans for the years ahead); the result in either case will be the
same - a slow-motion global economic and industrial collapse. The 1977 CIA document shows clear and detailed awareness of oil
issues, including depletion, extraction technologies, pipelines, areas
of likely new discovery, the quality of existing reserves, and the
dynamics of the global oil market. The CIA has obviously been studying
oil very carefully for some time and must therefore understand the
issue of global oil peak. This begs the questions: Does the Agency
have a strategy for dealing with this impending mega-event? Or is the
Agency's job merely to provide information, and allow the current
Administration to formulate policy? Here we must speculate. The developing semi-public row between the
neoconservatives of the present Administration and CIA insiders
suggests that the Bush team's plan for invading Iraq and subsequently
redrawing the map of the Middle East may not exactly coincide with
Agency recommendations. We know that the Bush-Cheney team is
independently aware of the issue of peak oil because international oil
investment banker Matthew Simmons, who has written extensively and
forcefully on depletion issues, was an advisor to Vice President
Cheney's now-infamous Energy Task Force in 2001. If policy makers and their intelligence analysts understand the
phenomenon of peak oil, and perhaps even used it strategically during
the 1980s to undermine the Soviet Union, and are aware of the upcoming
global peak, they must be interested to direct geopolitical events
accordingly. What thoughts may be occurring to them in this regard? The Middle East boasts 70% of global proven reserves of oil. Saudi
Arabia has the world's largest reserves (25% of the total), and most
of the 9/11 hijackers are alleged to have come from that country.
Osama bin Laden is a Saudi native, and his published statements center
on the project of ejecting American influence from the nation of
Medina and Mecca. If, as the neoconservatives have repeatedly hinted, Iraq is only
the first stage in a larger project of regional regime change, then
the real prize must lie just to the south in the giant fields east of
Riyadh. One cannot help but wonder if the long-coddled Saudi
government is even now being set up for a fall. As events unfold, it will be of more than passing interest to see
whether the CIA and the Bush Administration reconcile their
differences, or whether the neoconservatives' hubris and ideological
monomania will be their undoing. Meanwhile the real motives and long-term strategies of policy
makers and intelligence gatherers alike will likely remain opaque to
citizens who pay in blood and dollars for their government's military
adventures. "The Impending Soviet Oil Crisis" gives us a
rare, limited glimpse into the machinery of covert information
analysis and decision-making that shape history as we live it.
For sources, please check out informationclearinghouse.info
PEA K OI L | Lecture ASPO the Association for the Study of Peak Oil ASPO the Association for the Study of Peak Oil An MBendi Profile: World: Oil And Gas Industry - Peak Oil: an ... Hubbert Peak of Oil Production Peak oil: A turning point for humankind Revealing Statements from a Bush Insider about Peak Oil and ... [PDF]Peak Oil: A Turning for Mankind Peak Oil: A Turning for Mankind; Colin J. Campbell [DOC]THE ASSOCIATION FOR THE STUDY OF PEAK OIL
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