Turkey Delays U.S. Troop Issue Indefinitely

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"After Parliament's Vote Against Deployment, Leaders Weigh Options; Decision Could Follow Elections

Washington Post Foreign Service

Monday, March 3, 2003; Page A16

ANKARA, Turkey, March 2 -- The leaders of Turkey's ruling party, scrambling to recover from the unexpected defeat of their proposal to host U.S. troops in a war against Iraq, said tonight that a decision had not yet been reached on whether to seek another vote in parliament on the U.S. deployment.

"The proposal has been delayed to an open-ended time," Eyup Fatsa, a senior member of the governing Justice and Development Party, told reporters after a long day of meetings. "There is no proposal for the foreseeable future."

Other party officials said the leadership will probably delay a second vote -- if it chooses to schedule one at all -- for at least a week, after local elections March 9 that could lead to a reshuffling of the government. The proposal to host U.S. troops fell short by only three votes, and three vacant parliamentary seats will be filled in the elections.

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The uncertainty in Turkey leaves the Bush administration with a tough decision on whether to continue waiting for permission to use Turkish bases or abandon long-standing plans to open a northern front against Iraq from Turkish territory. The U.S. military has already begun refitting Turkish ports and airstrips, and an armada of U.S. ships has been waiting in the eastern Mediterranean for permission to unload tanks and equipment.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, chief of the Justice and Development Party, and his deputy, Prime Minister Abdullah Gul, left party headquarters tonight without speaking to reporters. But other senior officials said the government was still reviewing its options.

"No issue categorically consists of only one or two answers. Every choice brings alternatives, but every alternative will have a cost," Erdogan said in appearance earlier today. "Our government and state are prepared to develop the most appropriate alternatives in line with parliament's democratic preference, and are capable of implementing these alternatives."

One government official, who asked not to be identified, said the leadership was divided about whether to pursue a second vote. Complicating the decision was the closeness of Saturday's vote. Though lawmakers voted 264 to 250 in favor of U.S. deployment, the measure failed because 19 members abstained, and an absolute majority of all lawmakers present is required for approval.

One party official said the leadership might try to persuade the members who abstained to stay home during a second vote, allowing the measure to pass if the other legislators don't change their votes.

But any attempt to resubmit the question to parliament would be risky for the Justice and Development Party, which took power less than four months ago and saw nearly 100 of its members buck the party line Saturday. The defection of more than a quarter of the party's lawmakers was a surprise because only 30 members had indicated they would vote no during a party straw poll hours earlier, the party official said.

"Nobody knows what will happen next," he said. "Politically, taking an issue back to the parliament when it has already been rejected, it's not easy. There may be some difficulties."

He and others said the party would probably delay any second vote until after Sunday's elections. Erdogan himself is seeking one of the vacant seats in parliament, and if he wins, officials expect Gul to step aside as prime minister and let him form a new government. Erdogan was banned from running in the Nov. 3 elections because of a 1998 conviction for reciting a poem with Islamist overtones at a political rally. Parliament has since lifted that restriction.

"The government is trying to buy some time," said Ferai Tinc, a foreign policy columnist for Turkey's largest newspaper, Hurriyet. "The question is if the United States is willing to wait."

The party's deliberations took place as Turkey began coming to grips with Saturday's vote. Public opinion is running strongly against a war in Iraq, but people have grown accustomed to a political system that often disregards their views. Many expected the Justice and Development Party, which holds a 362-seat majority in the 550-member parliament, to prevail.

Defeat of the measure prompted expressions of pride in Turkey's evolving democratic system but anxiety about the consequences for the nation's alliance with the United States, which has helped sustain Turkey's ailing economy by backing loans from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund and supporting its bid to join the European Union.

By refusing U.S. access to its bases, Turkey could have less of a say in the future of northern Iraq, where it fears that a Kurdish state could emerge and rekindle armed Kurdish separatism inside Turkey. It would also lose billions of dollars in grants and loans that Washington had offered to soften the economic impact of a war.

Late tonight, Turkish officials continued to make preparations for Monday's opening of the financial markets, where turmoil is possible because investors had endorsed the U.S. deployment and were counting on the aid package.

© 2003 The Washington Post Company

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